Growth likely slowed as fuel costs Rose: overview of the U.S. economy

April 24, 2011, 12: 22 EDT by Timothy r. Homan

April 24 (Bloomberg) — the economy The us probably grew at a slower pace in the first quarter as a jump in the price of gasoline caused consumers to cut, economists, said that a report this week will show.

Gross domestic product grew at a 1.9% annual pace after increasing at a rate of 3.1 per cent in the previous three months, according to the median estimate of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News prior to April 28 report of the Ministry of trade. Other data may show business investment remains a pillar of economic recovery, while real estate prices fell.Reserve Federal decision makers, when they meet this week, say likely that they will complete the second round of stimulus 600 billion, as expected, through the end of June to help support the recovery. Although companies such as General Electric Co. and Apple Inc. are among the beneficiaries of its expenditures of material gains and software, households are feeling the pinch of food higher and fuel prices. "" The economy has hit a bit of a soft patch, "said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist of Moody Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania). "If we continue to get these sharp at the pump breaks, which will be a major success with consumers." It is a point of no return for consumers. "The estimate of GDP is the first of three for the quarter, with the other versions planned for may and June, when more information becomes available.CoolsHousehold purchases, which represent approximately 70% of the largest economy in the world, spending increased at an annual 2.1% pace a gain of 4 per cent in the last three months of 2010, the best performance in four years, according to the survey median.Of the higher prices for the products of first necessity such as food and energy can could hurt to spend on less essential items. The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline rose 18 percent in the first three months of the year, according to AAA, the nation more great motoring organization. The price rose another 6 percent so far this month, reaching $3.85 a gallon on 21 April, the highest since September 2008.Prices for all goods and services pink last quarter to a 2.4% annual pace, the biggest gain in more than two years, economists expected that GDP will also show.U.S. manufacturers are perform better than consumers as the increase in demand from emerging countries like China supplements gains in business spending. "" Good form ""We are really good form to accelerate the growth of industrial revenues", Jeffrey Immelt, chief executive officer of GE based in Fairfield, Connecticut, said on a conference call last week. "All the precursors are in place: good equipment levels, the growth of good backward, levels of good service, international growing two numbers and we invest to build a competitive advantage."Orders for durable goods increased by 2% in March after a decline of 0.6 per cent the previous month, economists forecast the Commerce Department figures will show April 27. actions of manufacturers of machines exceeded the broader market since the beginning of the year. The Standard & Poor Supercomposite machines Index rose by 9.8% compared to a 6.3% increase for policy makers of S & P 500 Index.Fed, in two days of meetings beginning on April 26, are likely to confirm that they will complete a program of the Board of Treasury purchase of 600 billion as scheduled at the end from June, according to economists like Neal Soss, Chief Economist at Credit Switzerland in New York. S. Ben Bernanke, President will hold his first press conference, after the Declaration of the Central Bank on 27 April, giving him the opportunity to discuss his next steps.Home PricesHousing continues to fight as mount seized. Home prices in 20 cities for the 12 months through February fell 3.3%, the largest decline since November 2009, according to the Bloomberg survey. The S & P/Case-Shiller index is due on 26 April sales of new homes, due tomorrow of the Department of trade, rose 12 per cent for a 280 000 annual pace in March, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Purchase of 250,000 of February of the pace is at the lowest data dating back to 1963.Pending sales or contract for existing houses, rose 1.7 percent in March after an increase of 2.1 percent the prior montheconomists forecast, the National Association of Realtors will report on April 28. gains in employment, with higher stock values, are outweighed by the increase in the price of gas and the decline in home values when it comes to measuring the attitudes of consumers.The Thomson Reuters/University of the final index of Michigan for April, due April 29, is expected to climb up to 70 of 67.5 at the end of March, according to economists surveyed. The Conference Board, based in New York on 26 April can present its gauge of confidence rose to 64.5 of 63.4 last month, the survey showed.

-With the help of Alex Tanzi in Washington. Editors: Carlos Torres, Vince Golle

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy r. Homan in Washington to thoman1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz in Washington to cwellisz@bloomberg.net

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Low rate of birth threat economy of South Korea, Governor Kim said

April 20, 2011, 7: 18 pm EDT by Belinda Cao

April 21 (Bloomberg) — the greatest threat to the economic health of the Korea of the South is not North Korean aggression or Chinese competition, Kim Moon-Soo, Governor of the largest province of the country and a potential candidate. According to the low fertility rate of the country.

Korea of the South have to face "a very big obstacle to our growth" that families have more babies, Governor of Gyeonggi Kim said in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. The Government must be "more active" in providing childcare and the lowering of the costs of the education of families, he said.Women with careers, which tend to "not to marry and not step to have children", have added to this "difficult" question, said Kim, the candidate favored most third in the Grand National Party for the next presidential electiona Realmeter survey this month. The Gyeonggi province has implemented incentives for encouraging Government employees have more children, said Kim.Taux of fertility of the Korea of the South was 1.21 per woman in the past five years - the fourth, lowest in the world, according to data from the Organization of Nations United. economy fourth Asia seeks more trade cooperation with the United States such as increased competition from China, which has lower labor costs and land prices, it faces. Kim urged the United States to ratify the free trade agreement between the two countries, adding to the military alliance between the nations which is "essential criticism" because of the China.Increasing TradeChina of China, exceeding Japan last year than the world of the second - most big economyis a competitor, but also a partner in trade closely with the Korea of the South, even though it is always on the Korea of North on military affairs, Kim said. The two countries on the Korean peninsula remains technically at war since the end of their 1950-53 conflict in a ceasefire, which was never replaced by a peace treaty. "If there is not in China, the alliance U.S. - Korea is not essential,"he says.Groups the Korea anti-Americans may attempt to stimulate the animosity against the United States, said Kim, noting that the trade agreement awaiting ratification has been completed during the administration of President George w. Bush, with some provisions renegotiated in December.A ex aequo with the United States firm security is also important for South Korea in relations with the Korea of the NordKim said. "" We must try to continue our dialogue and cooperation with the Korea of the North, but it must be based on a strong military alliance "with the United States, he said.Korea in the South refused to engage in dialogue with the Korea of the North, until the Government in Pyongyang apologize for the attacks of last year that killed 50 South Koreans, which hamper international negotiations on the weapons of the Korea of the Nord.Se program moving semiconductor and electronics KoreaSome Japanese makers, including Canon Inc., are considering relocation of plants in the Gyeonggi province to take advantage of the market in full growth of the Korea for these products, a trend that began after the earthquake in the Japan last month, according to Kim. Based at San Diego Qualcomm Inc., world's largest producer of mobile phone chips, also expand its investment in the country, he said.Kim, who said he was jailed twice while in militant anti-Government, was declared after seeing the failure in communism in the 1990s, he became a conservative after the fall of the Berlin wall and the Soviet Union. He said that his first visit in 1994 to United States, where he saw "impressive values" of the rights of man even in poor neighbourhoods, such as Harlem the city of New York, also helped to change his point of view.When asked to confirm his plans to run for President, Kim, 59, said, "Let's wait and see"- and noted that there is 20 months before the election.

-Editors: Steven Komarow, Leslie Hoffecker

To contact the reporter on this story: Belinda Cao in New York at the lcao4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kenneth Fireman at kfireman1@bloomberg.net

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Oil, saw Gold Rally economy overcame "winds".

April 20, 2011, 3: 52 pm EDT by Kim Kyoungwha

(Adds the third paragraphs record ninth gold.)

April 20 (Bloomberg) — oil, Platinum and gold can rally as the global economy is resistant to the agitation of sovereign debt of the "wind" of the high interest rates, Europe and nuclear crisis of the Japan, according to Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd.Threadneedle is bullish on oil and Platinum as demand climbingWhile that gold can advance to a record amount of $1,800 an ounce, Manager David Donora, said in an e-mail interview. London - based hedge fund targets its funds of major products of $ 149 million to beat the Dow Jones - UBS Commodity Index by 6% in 2011.Citigroup Inc., said this week industrial and metal have "limited upside" while money may fall as central banks curb inflation. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has put an end to a call for the purchase of raw materials, including oil in the short term, while for earnings over the next 12 months. Gold reached a record today. "" We see winds in the short term, as the market digests higher prices, a tightening of emerging markets take effect, and the market adjusts to the tragedy at the Japan, said Donora. "" " "We believe that the recovery will continue and that the demand for products will accelerate at the end of the year".Group of 20 finance chiefs said last week that the strengthening of the global economy, citing "more robust" demand growth so that the Japan reconstructed record last month's quake and disaster nuclear and Europe battles a debt crisis. Largest metals user of the world, from China increased at a faster than 9.7% in the first quarter, according to government figures of.Cotton, SilverInvestors have more than doubled their bets on higher prices for products sold in the United States, according to government figures. The Dow Jones - UBS Commodity Index won 5.2% this year and hit the highest level since 2008 April 8, led by gains in money and cotton.Threadneedle Asset Management, founded in 1994, overseeing total assets of $ 97 billion. The main commodity Fund, which is managed by Donora and invests in the energy, metals and agricultural communities as well as actions of producers, has posted a return to this day of 9.2%, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.Donora added gold to its list of best results this year investors seeking to preserve their wealth against inflation higher and weaker currencies. The dollar has lost 5.4% against a basket of currencies this year. "One would expect gold to be the motto of the refuge of choice,"Donora said April 18. However, immediate delivery, who has won every year since 2001, hit a record level of $1,502.32 an ounce today.Threadneedle is also "regularly optimistic" on oil and Platinum as they face constraints of supply and demand, Donora, said, without giving any forecast. Crude at New York exploded 31 per cent year 109.13 last $ US per barrel as unrest in supply injured in the Middle East, while Platinum increased by 4.3% to $1,788.75 an ounce.Global CampaignThe global campaign to fight inflation curbing demand for products, said Donora. "Central banks around the world, including the European Central Bank, have raised interest rates to counter rising prices and China has taken other measures, such as the sale of oilseeds to a discount of market price"."Any attempt to subsidize the prices of materials first to soften inflation is likely to offset the higher prices rationing effect", he said. "This leads to higher end prices."Corn has more that doubled in the last year, 66 percent and soybean sudden wheat increased by 37%. On 16 April, the World Bank President Robert Zoellick said that the world economy is "a shock away" a crisis in food.Again, Donora does not expect a return of the food crisis that has been seen in 2008 that he has "lots of trust to the farmer of North America". The United States are the largest exporter of wheat, corn and soybeans.

-Editors: Jake Lloyd-Smith, Jarrett banks

To contact the reporter on this story: Kyoungwha Kim at Singapore to the Kkim19@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net

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Study ties suicide rate in labour force to the economy

Experts said the new study may help one long tarnished to clarify relationship between suicide and economic development.

While many researchers that have argued economic hardship can increase the likelihood of suicide in people who are already vulnerable - such as those with depression or other mental illnesses - having research has been mixed. Some studies have supported such a link, but others have found the opposite: that prices in times of high unemployment, as if people have integrity, when they need it most.

With more comprehensive data, economic trends, nail down, the new study found a clear correlation between suicide rates and of the economic cycle in young and middle age adults. This correlation disappeared as a researcher on children and the elderly. It may not the case, which cause economic difficulties suicide attempts, but they can be factors.

"they have a nice job add a piece of a very complex puzzle," said Eve Moscicki, a researcher at the American Psychiatric Institute for research and education, which was not involved in the investigation. "It may be that in humans, which are more prone to suicide to lose a job or receive a reduction in pay, it adds an additional stressor."

In the study, which appears in the American Journal of public health centers for disease control and prevention investigated suicide rates per 100,000 Americans each year from 1928 to 2007 researchers at the Federal Republic.

The overall rate dropped by more than one-third in this time of 11.2 of 18.0, with most of the decline before 1945. Fluctuated in the mid-1950s, tended upward until the late 1970s, and back down from the mid-1980s until 2000. In the years improved access to care, rising standards of living have this general downward trend researchers and better drugs, attributed to among other things.

To determine the effect of economic cycles, the average rate calculated period as the economy responsible researchers and compared with the average in the years to the downturn. The sharpest increase came at the beginning of the great depression, when prices jumped 23 percent - on 22.1 1932 of 18.0 1928. The study found small bumps during the oil crisis at the beginning of the 1970s and the double-dip recession of the early 1980's, among others economic troughs.

The suicide rate dropped in General in times of economic expansion, with some exceptions. While the 1960s boom went among the people in the 1930s and 1940s and actually decreased in the elderly in the severe recession of the mid-1970s.

Cultural factors played a role, the authors argue. "The social unrest and turmoil of the 1960s have added youth mental stress and contributed to their ever-increasing rates of suicide," she wrote. "For the older group, the rapid increase in the benefits of social security in the late 1960's a safety net may have been in difficult times."

Feijun Luo, the main author of the study, said, "the findings suggest the potential, you will find a large increase during this current recession under before." His co-authors were Curtis S. Florence, Myriam Quispe-Agnoli, Yantai Ouyang and Dr. Alexander E. Crosby, all of the C.D.C.

Suicide is impossible to predict, and rarely even in the most dire, so prevention programmes and early treatments had mixed results. The most address specific problems such as drug abuse, depression, isolation and difficult family relationships. But this study communities and doctors should be a better feeling not only if risk is high, but where - working-age adults, in this case.

"Once people age of the workforce, it seems no relationship between the business cycle and their vulnerability," said Dr. Florence.

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China's economy grows more than the forecast 9.7% as prices Jump

4: 26 Pm EDT by Bloomberg News, April 15, 2011

April 15 (Bloomberg)--the Chinese economy grew more - that - estimated 9.7% in the first quarter and the inflation in March has accelerated the fastest rate since 2008, adding to pressure for further monetary tightening.

Consumer prices increased by 5.4% a year earlier, the Statistics Office, said at a Conference in Beijing today. The median forecast in surveys of Bloomberg News, economists have been for the growth of 9.4% and the inflation of 5.2%.The Central Bank can stimulate reserve requirements for lenders, as early as this evening to drain liquidity in important economy the fastest-growing, Credit Agricole CIB and & Australia New Zealand Banking Group, said. Data of today can also add pressure increase of interest rates and more rapid appreciation in the yuan after foods and fresh products drove inflation higher than the target of the Government for a third month 2011. "" There is little economic moderation despite monetary tightening is aggressive, ", said Li-Gang Liu, Economist ANZ in Hong Kong, who previously worked for the World Bank. "Inflation remains a high risk."The report of the reserve is 20% for the largest banks and the reference of one year for borrowing costs is 6.31 percent after four rate increases since mid-October. The growth was 9.8% in the fourth quarter of last year.Index of Composite closed Shanghai 0.3 per cent higher. The yuan has varied little at 6.5295 per dollar as of 3: 27 pm, local time.Pressures Asian InflationInflation across Asia have been highlighted by India reports today a jump from 8.98% greater than the forecast of the index of the prices of wholesale in March of the previous year.Data release today in China confirmed numbers circulating yesterday, including a report of Phoenix television. The statistics bureau condemned any leaks and said offenders will be punished.Investment in assets other than rural households has increased by 25% in the first quarter a year earlier and industrial production soared 15 percent in March, the statistics bureau, said. Retail sales grew an annual 17 percent in March and production price has jumped to 7.3%, showed the report today.Officials must evaluate the "lagging effects" of monetary policy to avoid future injury of the economy, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said this week. China International Capital Corp., most large investment bank of China, warned that the growth of corporate earnings may slow as the economy cools in the coming months. "Inflationary pressures" may influence consumption in China, Pierre Bouchut, financial agent for Carrefour SA, second retailer in the world, said analysts yesterday. "CostsInflation of commodities was mainly due to costs of food, which increased by 12% in March from the previous year. The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa said at a meeting in Sanya, China, yesterday that the volatile commodity prices pose a threat to the global economy, asking more than regulation.Non-food inflation accelerated to 2.7 per cent, while reserves a jump in Exchange China at a world record $ 3 trillion, reported yesterday, said the additional risk that capital inflows could fuel inflation.Taming the price is the top Government and "urgent" priority, China's cabinet, said after the meeting in Beijing this week to examine the performance of the world's second economy. Officials aim to contain inflation to 4% for the entire year. The tightening measures and comparisons with the year more high-bases earlier can slow down the earnings of prices in the second half of the year, according to the HSBC Holdings Plc.The economy increased by 2.1% over the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted, bureau of statisticssaid today, releasing this number for the first time. Comparing with a 2.4 percentage gain in the fourth quarter. Consumer prices have slipped 0.2% in March, February.Wen on YuanThe Central Bank may increase the flexibility of the yuan to "eliminate the monetary conditions that fuel inflation," Wen said this week. The Chinese currency is described by the United States as undervalued and a factor of global economic imbalances. "" It would be very advantageous to allow the currency to appreciate as a means of controlling inflation, "billionaire investor George Soros, Chairman of Soros Fund Management LLC, said at a Conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, April 10. He described inflation as "a little out of control."Investors have reported the confidence that the fastest growing major economy will achieve a landing soft called, with controlled inflation and expansion continued. Stock market index of the reference of Shanghai Advanced 8% in the three months through today, compared to a 2% decrease in the cabinet of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.China this week, said this property rising prices in many cities and of rising inflation expectations are the key concerns as the nation wrestling to the following a record 17.5 billion yuan ($2.7 billion) of loans plus 2009 and 2010.Rating CutFitch ratings cut the Outlook for the rating of sovereign debt of the local currency of China to "negative" from "stable" this weekciting a likely deterioration of quality of the assets of the Bank. Moody's Investors Service lowered its Outlook for the property sector to "negative" from "stable" on the residential concern sales could reduce by 30% if local governments apply borders of housing.In contrast, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., lending more of the world by the value of market, said its bad-loan ratio decreased and excluded a deterioration in the quality of property assets and the local Government of loan. "If economic growth, the financial sector is required to do well,"President Jiang Jianqing told in an interview with Bloomberg Television to Sanya in southern China's Hainan province yesterday." "The challenges that we face in areas such as real estate and local government funding vehicles will all solved." Chinese banks asset quality deteriorates. "China should protect against the risk of overheating, International Monetary Fund said in its semi-annual Economic Outlook published on 11 April. "Credit growth remains high compared to dazzling previous crises and credit booms and concern mounting on the potential for steep corrections in the price of real estate and their implications, the Fund has.

-Victoria Ruan, Zheng Lifei, Zhang Dingmin. With the help of Jay Wang at Singapore. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Sunil Jagtiani.

To communicate with the staff of Bloomberg News on this story: Victoria Ruan vruan1@bloomberg.net Beijing; Zheng Lifei in Beijing at lzheng32@bloomberg.net

% CNY

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst in the ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net

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Sour economy and several new crises of test Japan's young

They are a transformed Japan a generation raised released is tested in prosperity by his oldest as selfish materialists TOKYO - hundreds of thousands of young people to start their working lives on Friday.

1. April the traditional entrance together day for incoming classes of the new employees who assume adult responsibilities and values with the new suits and white shirts, which are the uniforms of the corporate Japan razor sharp. But she face so insecure as everyone in their lives, a landscape with Japan's economy hobbled and crush his pride by the triple disasters of earthquakes, tsunami, and nuclear crisis.

Yo expected Miura, type include a bank in the area of Sendai, a steady income and a modest amount of prestige. But his start date at the Bank has during Northeast Japan, struggling to rebuild. He said "My life has completely changed," during the meeting in the Employment Office on the Tohoku University in Sendai, his alma mater. Before, my life "was peaceful and predictable." "Now, I'm not sure what is the future."

While he by his employer expected, plans word Mr. Miura his friends example to follow and to volunteer, to help people rebuild their homes. Mr. Miura hopes that by fixing broken walls and roof retiling, life he can bring the people to repair and deeper meaning to his own.

"So many houses are destroyed, I good help out will feel," he said.

While also spoiled life to traditional Japanese values of self-sacrifice and hard work off wrote many of the older them, many young people find meaning in the crisis. Even before the earthquake fought this generation with a sense of foiled chances in a stagnant economy. Many young people with the erosion of the post-war period compact, a slavish devotion to stable wages and benefits work dealt, felt alienated. Legions of college graduates, to land a full time jobs and eagerly their individuality have expressions in that and drove from part-time work, a limbo-like existence, that unfathomable for older generations.

Some graduates, destined corporate life have found groups purpose volunteering in non-profit work shuttling aid to destitute newly in the prefectures North of here. Students took to the streets to collect donations for those in need. Blogs and social networking sites are flooded with comments from young people questions, what they can do to help.

"Before the earthquake, I was thinking about me and what I can do for my new business," said Miki Kamiyama, which only at the Meiji University and work for a small cable company in Yokohama on Friday begins. "But now I think what I can do for all of society."

The most affected are the new employees to Tokyo electric power company, which has the disabled nuclear power plants in Fukushima. Once one of Japan most prestigious company, Tokyo Electric goal of anger and contempt, and some observers become question whether State aid need it.

Tokyo Electric, known as Tepco, is so consumed with its nuclear reactors in Fukushima, that it is unlikely that many free workers the hires 1,100 or so to train, to start work this week, and many new buildings, the projects was delayed shut down. Still, meaning some new employees the possibility of a broken company fix. "In a way, I feel happy that I to help the front, the people and the society of Japan, will be", said a new entrant, who asked that his name not be used, to alienate not to his employer. "I feel that people who want to work for companies such as Tepco, to help in any way."

The personal transformations are more subtle outside Iwate Miyagi and Fukushima, the three prefectures, which have suffered the most. Without correct obvious damage to young people, dealing with a silent threat of radioactive particles, as well as roles are power outages, which many of the electronic gadgets that were their constant companions have forced Japanese do without instead.

Hiroko Tabuchi, Ken Ijichi and Moshe comma contributed reporting.

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