2011年4月21日星期四

War in Libya could drag on, military analysts say

The posting of liaison officers - probably fewer than 40 by you, and as a military instructor is also carefully not reported - a sign, they said that only a combination of military pressure from the sky, economic pressure on the Government and a better organized and coordinated rebel group will finally convince Col. Muammar el-Gaddafi, that he no option but to stop you.

"Some Libya thought of could be fast,", a senior said Ambassador to NATO. "But no military commander thinks so."

Sending consultants to Libya is the latest in a series of characters effort for the NATO campaign, which set out with a seriously began American-led attack, but has seemed to fizzle out as command was transferred to NATO on 31 March. After that an offensive was rebel smashed by Qadhafi forces, which the rebels reeling towards the eastern town of Ajdabiya sent.

New tactics of Qadhafi troops - mix with civilians, camouflage arms and drive pickup trucks instead of military vehicles - pilot, it was hard for NATO to objectives are. At the same time the rebels have hammered loyalist artillery and tanks held city of Misurata, with cluster bombs, allegedly, by large parts of the world, so that civilians to protect prohibited a mockery of the NATO central mission.

But as the new Qadhafi seem tactics, divisions within the Alliance's strategy of damage, Robin Niblett, Director of Chatham House, said the Royal Institute Affairs in London of international. Only six of the 28 countries participate in the air raids and France and the United Kingdom are about half of them during Denmark, Norway, Belgium and Canada do the rest.

Prominent Nations such as Italy and Spain are back, and other aircraft only for the support of the no-fly zone have sent or are helping to enforce the arms embargo. The Obama administration, which has ruled out deploying American troops in Libya, announced Wednesday that it approximately $25 million in military surplus supplies, even though not weapons, to the Libyan opposition forces would authorize.

"You want to Qadhafi of a collective will, send that there is no way that he is a firm and unified opposition, facing" Mr Niblett said. "And he is a European-led NATO, which is not enough contiguous see."

"If I were him, I consider European differences and heart of them, take in the opposition so weak," said Mr Niblett.

Colonel Qadhafi "feel there is a gap between means and ends," he added. "He can by divisions among allies and feeling that he part of a political solution can be, because he can feel at the end, there are not enough cohesion strategy follow up to the end, look at" which is his downfall.

Colonel Qadhafi and his sons to leave convincing, he said: "we need both the political and military track, and we have bits of the military and a broken political situation, and we give the best shot of the strategy."

In a sense, the problems in the NATO changes can be traced since the end of the cold war. With the end of the threat of the Soviet Union and the expansion to global missions outside Europe, NATO of less has an Alliance as a coalition of like-minded Nations, analysts say.

"If NATO went from area it an Alliance, stopped," said Francois Heisbourg, an expert in the Foundation for strategic research in Paris defense. "In the area it is partnership unlimited liability." But now with a global scope, everything needs to be negotiated, and it is all à la carte. "This is the post cold war world."

Tomas Valasek, a defense expert at the London Centre for European reform, to NATO one political party, "a coalition of countries with largely the same interests, but with different views." It was inevitable after the cold war, he said that NATO countries would focus on various threats: terrorism and Afghanistan for some, such as the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and the Netherlands; Russia, for the Central Europeans. He said "I know why they remain in NATO"As for the rest,"also."

NATO never said what it was, Mr Valasek. "NATO of more a transactional site in the future be so as in Libya, the Willigen will mostly coalitions, with the support of NATO."

The reject NATO official criticism, that Alliance has done a good job in a short time and that the air campaign is working well.

"There is no question of the collective will of NATO" to the UN resolution on Libya perform, Oana Lungescu, spokeswoman for the Alliance said. She said that in the three weeks since NATO took command of the operation, "we are steadily Qadhafi's ability degrading, to carry out and maintain attacks on his own people and gradually the regime forces pressing."

But almost all are agreed, "that there no military solution to the crisis as such", said Ms Lungescu.

"This mission is the pressure for a credible political solution," she said.

A senior NATO Ambassador asked for patience. "At the end of the balance changes, it has," he said. "Qadhafi gets no more weapons, no more tanks, no more ammunition, and he gets weaker and the others get stronger over the course of time." "And at some point someone decides in Qadhafi, have a political way out."

Colonel Qadhafi Foreign Minister, Moussa Koussa, defected to the United Kingdom three weeks ago - where he half-heartedly as an encouragement to others to the Libyan leader change pages treated was - there was no significant defector since.

The current political debate, which said senior NATO Ambassador, is not whether the war will end Libya in negotiations, but the nature and context of the discussions. Some countries would like to start negotiations with Colonel Gaddafi, before he makes with the clear goal of leaves, he has to leave. But others, especially the rebels, saying that negotiations can only after the Colonel and his sons are sure of the country.

For now, Mr Valasek said, the problem is that Colonel Qadhafi and NATO supported opposition time on their side think. "It may take this is as leads us military force longer everyone to see." "But if we want a shared Libya we need to sit down and negotiate."

Steven Lee Myers contributed reporting from Washington.


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