Earnings have recovered their assignments pre-recessionary with margins close to record levels. Although pleased productive, work their "longer and more difficult" and stable low labour costs have contributed, the key to the recovery of compensation has been the reduction of the labour market initiatives, or as the Donald would have said "you are fired" (do I need to give as much time if it running?). Gains, however, cannot reach their new records expected in the second half of 2011 without an increase in sales. There are simply too few cuts left (although some surveys show that cuts continue, with increases in low pay) and if you want to increase the bottom line, you're going to grow the top line. Putting aside what may be a piece of M & A contagious, not that I have nothing against the purchase sales, which means companies must generate sales the old fashion way - get customers to spend. The main spender is and remains, the consumers. On the one hand, they have paid slightly down their credit cards, but are always ready to compete on the occasion, some owners are burdened with new draw downs real estate (guess the old ones are enough), he had only 2% social security tax reduction, and if we only read the headlines, the unemployment rate has fallen again. However, it appears that some of these consumers can be realigning their priorities once again, something who want to eat and having to drive (do not have to worry about, we were told it is not inflationary). The line of substance for them, is that there are expectations limited to large increases in consumer spending, with potential changes of discretion of Staples. The other spender - which we hope will be the big spender, East of Ministry expenses. Remuneration, as noted, is close to record levels, cash introduced his ninth high quarterly consecutive, cash flow for 2010 was a beautiful thing and our representatives friendly Affairs in Washington (which is still open to this writing;) On 18 April began a recess of the week 2 in both cases) have been quite pleasant to spend (100%) first year tax depreciation full schedule, with some strings attached. I would not put a cash bet on them being as friendly on repatriation. First-quarter earnings reports will begin Monday (as of last night that the & S P 500 has already 27 reported issues; 4.5%, attached file), with more than 70% expected by the end of the month. I expect to read that companies were spending in the first quarter and doing so at a rate which will produce an increase in sales to two digits. Specifically, I calculated that more than 30% of the questions are expected to report double-digit sales gains and for the S & P 500 show its first gain double-digit sales quarterly-year since March 2006. The index failed to display four changes to two consecutive fourth-quarter ' 09 through Q3, numbers ' 09, but those who have been double-digit decline. Financials sales are expected to lead the growth quarter (25.6% in the first quarter, 10'), but it is still a story of recovery from the bottom. Energy (24.7%) is partially a pass along as a percentage of the price of oil; this brings me to the technology information (13.5%), the most important sector in the index (18.0%;) (Financial statements are 16.0% and energy is 13.2%) and therefore, with the greatest impact. (For some and me), it has become an indicator of advancement for expenses of the companies. The logic is that you cannot develop without it, therefore their backorders, similar to the manufacture of orders, tell a story. We have seen it earnings post double-digit sales for most of last year, which given their 2009 number was less they could have done (similar to the current financial gains high), but now easy comparisons have disappeared, and the growth rate has declined. Gains from sales that there are large, with nearly 30% of the questions should display a 20% sales increase (-year). The implication is that spending is beginning to pick up past the low recovery where finally new jobs could be created - and without jobs recovery cannot proceed. There are few signs of massive expansion of production or of the plant (United States), and I saw a few major product launches (outside Apple; my teenage daughter love always, even if the NASD likes the 40 least: 20,49% at 12.33%; note the 100 adjustment should reduce the increase in the cost of the strategy volatilitémais plays against) (index 100), so I offer little hope of rapid hiring. However, as the increase in sales and at this stage 2011 looks to gain double-digit, businesses will be commit to produce more, adding a few hours, then perhaps a change and at some point eventually hiring. Then with more jobs, will spend more people, businesses produce more…. then the cycle will really start turning up. Of course, when companies start hiring, spend more money and by investing more, we can all complain about their declining margins - but this will be something nice to complain.
See the file for charts and sales data On.doc
Ben Steverman of Bloomberg Businessweek focuses on the last moves on financial markets and the emerging trends in stocks, bonds and funds, always with an eye toward giving readers to better understand the sometimes confusing and often chaotic money world. Senior analyst index of Standard & Poor Howard Silverblatt will also provide its decision-making on the finances of companies and markets. One of the "Top 100 Finance Blogs" voted in 2007.
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