The Ministry of labour will publish March jobs report at 8:30 am. My colleague Michael Powell posted his preview of the report earlier tonight. These are the five things that I will be looking to first:
(1) Has the current turbulence - employer spooked the oil prices, Japan, Portugal, State and local cuts?
In the last three months (December to February) now data is, the economy added 135,000 jobs per month. This was almost exactly the growth dynamics of job in the spring of 2010, before a combination of events - Europe's debt problems, in particular - stopped rest in its title.
Is the year's recovery at risk similar? A gain of 200,000 or more jobs in March, would suggest that no. closer would provide A reinforcement to worry about 100,000.
2. Is there reason to believe, that Ministry of labour employment growth might be undercounting?
The above figures refer to the Government estimate the increase in employment based on his survey of the employers. But the Government surveys households each month. In General, the employer survey is more accurate, because it is much larger. Turning points the household survey can but more precisely, because survey often fails the employer, to record the creation of new businesses (or the closure of failed ones).
Now one can be this turning points. According to the household survey, the economy has added 221,000 jobs - not 135,000 - a month in the last three months. Remember that the economy needs 150,000 jobs a month to keep only create population growth thinking.
So, employers as well as the household survey are worth a visit on Friday. In particular, pay attention to the change of the number of workers according to the household survey - and not the unemployment rate, which can by the number of people that are distorted on the search type to work.
3. What happens to wages?
Although the labour market is so weak as it is now, are the vast majority of people who want to work, has in fact, of course. For her role, wage developments likely more than unemployment trends.
From February 2009 to February 2010 average hourly wage rose began only 1.7 percent, the slowest annual growth since before the recession. Rising oil and food prices caused annual inflation now have to 2.2 per cent, which means that most workers an effective pay took cutting last year to achieve. While most of this downturn, however, workers jobs next increases obtained.
Joseph H. Ellis, an author and former Goldman Sachs analyst, argued that pay the wages the single best predictor of consumer spending. In February, the average hourly wage rose just one cent to $22,87. A monthly increase of at least 4 cents - translation at an annual pace of more than 2 per cent - would be much more welcome.
4. Existing staff work more hours?
The average length of the work week in the private sector has in fact 34.2 hours since May last year (with slight variations here and there) glued. June 2009 to May 2010, before the recovery from, into the ground to a halt the news was much better: the work week rose to 34.2 hours, from a low of 33.7 hours.
If the work week increases in March, it will propose that companies have more business - and that several of them are more workers on the verge of hiring.
5. How are the underemployed and unemployed in the absence of hard core?
You have been the source of some of the most encouraging news lately. To 8.3 million in February fell by 9.5 million in September 2010, the number of people, part-time work, because she couldn't find full-time work. And less than 6 million in February, was the number of people who have unemployed 27 weeks from a peak of 6.7 million in May 2010. Further progress in March?
One last thing: in a typical month, the Ministry of labour changes to the last two months of data - January and February in this case - are important not to overlook. You are certainly on Friday of importance. But I think they are less than usual of importance.
The overarching question will be whether the recent economic and political turmoil has created new problems in the labour market.
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