(Updates with prices closing of the second paragraph).
April 15 (Bloomberg)--more great China Investment Bank turns "prudent" on stocks of the country, as six of its Overseas rivals and the largest mutual fund manager say that it is the time to buy.China International Capital Corp. predicts the economic slowdown and growth of earnings limit equity gains after the Hang Seng China enterprises index increased by 6.6% this year, the best advance among key Asian indices. "The provider of the head of research in China in the Asiamoney survey recommends"defensive"businesses including cash and consumer staples producers".We will turn cautious, "Hong Hao, CICC global equity strategist, said in an interview to 13 April in Shanghai." "Economic growth will slow in the coming months."CICC reduced outlook follows recommendations to stimulate the Chinese holdings stocks in the month of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Macquarie Group Ltd., and HSBC Holdings Plc, with forecasts for more gains of at least 14% by Credit Switzerland Group AG and Deutsche Bank AG. This week, has declared Pacific Investment Management Co., who oversees the $ 1.2 billion, it occupies a position of "great overweight" in China.While the actions of the country are rallied for three consecutive weeks on speculation that the Bank of China is near the end of its campaign to tighten policy monétaireHong said investors bullish can be disappointed.Rate BetsThe Hang Seng gauge Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong, or H-shares, fell 23 percent in the six months after that the Central Bank ceased to increase in 2007, underperforming index of emerging markets of the MSCI by 14 percentage points. In 2004, the tonnage of H-share rose about 3 percent after rate increases at the end, the MSCI index of end of 8 percentage points.The index of H-share added 0.4% to 13,533.58 today. "Consensus sees the start of the end of the interest rate hike cycle and so is distributed upward,"Hong said in a report sent to clients April 10. "The end of the cycle is not necessarily optimistic judging by the experiences of 2004 and 2007."In January 2010, Hong, a former analyst at Morgan Stanley and strategist of Citigroup Inc., predicted that stocks would be retirement as the Government reined in property speculation. The tonnage of China Hang Seng dropped 10 percent in the first half while index Composite of Shanghai of so-called shares exchanged on the continent declined by 27 percent. The tonnage of Shanghai gained 0.3% at 3,050.53 today.In November 2010, Hong advised investors to avoid buying Chinese stocks after the largest gathering of 15 months. The tonnage of China Hang Seng decreased for four straight months.Inflation JumpChina economy grew a further estimated 9.7% in the first quarter and inflation in March has accelerated the fastest rate since 2008, the National Bureau of statistics said at a Conference in Beijing today.Consumer prices increased by 5.4% a year earlier, the bureau of statistics said. The median forecast in surveys of Bloomberg News, economists have been for the growth of 9.4% and the inflation of 5.2%.China has increased its lending rate of benchmark of 1 percent to 6.31% since October and thrown the requirements of the reserve banks three times this year to combat inflation and curbing property speculation.The policy makers will raise the rate of loan key to 6.56% year-end, according to the median of forecasts in a survey of 20 economists Bloomberg March 22. In addition to monetary tools, the Government has deployed grants, State food reserves and the threat of the price control to counter inflation, including Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has described as a threat to social stability of the nation of 1.3 billion people. "The biggest second sustainable Rally Bank ' Credit Switzerland, Switzerland, boosted its forecast for 12 months on the Hang Seng index the day after its central bank rate increase on 5 April. HSBC, Europe largest lender, has increased its rating on the greater China "overweight" Investment Bank while the Australia, Macquarie, said investors expected lift holdings because the Central Bank is near the end of raising borrowing costs.Chinese stocks have been upgraded to "overweight" from "market weight" the previous week by analysts Helen Zhu and Timothy Moe at Goldman Sachs, the largest fifth U.S. Bank by assets. They recommended banking and property sharing and their target of 16 500 for 12-month Hang Seng index. In a report distributed on 21 March, Ma Jun, a strategist based in Hong Kong to Deutsche Bank, largest of Germany, lender said that Chinese actions can achieve approximately 25 per cent.Maria Gordon, a Fund Manager of emerging stock in London in the Pimco, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on 13 April as financial and property stocks are attractive. The 236 billion PIMCO Total Return Fund, managed by Bill Gross, is the largest mutual fund in the history of the industry.Cup CyclicalsFrank Li, JPMorgan China strategist, said stocks may "swing" before a "sustainable rally" towards the end of the third quarter, according to the comments sent by e-mail yesterday. MOE of Goldman Sachs, Garry Evans of HSBC and Peggy Chan of Switzerland Credit did not respond to telephone and E-mail requests for comment. Michael Kurtz, a strategist at Macquarie, declined to comment. "Growth will be stronger than market expectations,"Ma of Deutsche Bank said in a telephone interview yesterday." "We expect a small re-rating of the market as the macro fears rise." ' Cheap' StocksThe MSCI China Index primarily listed in Hong Kong China stocks "is cheap," said Ma. Trades of gauge for 12 times estimated, compared to its historical average of 14.8, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The measure on the part of h is assessed both the 11.1, compared to 11.6 for the emerging market MSCI Index.CICC Hong advised investors to cut holdings of the companies that rely on the acceleration of economic growth to increase revenuesincluding producers of raw materials. Benefits to companies listed on China spent about 19% in 2011, at the bottom 40 percent last year, according to IPCC estimates. "It is time to turn defensive,"said Hong.-Michael Patterson, Zhang Shidong and Allen Wan. With the help of Irene Shen and Kristine Aquino. Publisher: Allen Wan
To communicate with the staff of Bloomberg News for this story: Michael Patterson in London, mpatterson10@bloomberg.net. Allen Wan in Shanghai at the awan3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reinie Booysen at rbooysen@bloomberg.net
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