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These supporters say they do not want to get too far ahead of themselves, and make clear that Ms. Giffords, who was shot in the head, is still relearning basic tasks and might emerge from the hospital with neither the same political abilities nor aspirations that she had before. And publicly, her closest aides say the only thing they care about is her health.
“Our focus is on her recovery and what comes after that comes after that,” said Pia Carusone, Ms. Giffords’s chief of staff.
Despite such protestations, several of Ms. Giffords’s longtime aides are whispering behind the scenes that she just might recover in time to run for the seat that Senator Jon Kyl, a Republican, is vacating next year.
While it might be wishful thinking, Ms. Giffords’s noncampaign is already having a major effect on Arizona politics; other prospective Democratic candidates say they feel compelled not to jump in unless she bows out, allowing Republicans to get a head start organizing their campaigns.
“I’m in but only if she’s not,” said one prospective Democratic candidate, who spoke of his deliberations but insisted that he not be named given the fluid nature of the race. “A Democrat running against her would be doomed.”
Ever so quietly, Ms. Giffords’s political allies are laying the groundwork just in case. Friends and allies held a fund-raiser for her on March 15 in Washington — trying to supplement her Congressional campaign war chest, which totaled about $285,000 at year’s end and could be tapped for a Senate bid. Her former campaign manager, Rodd McLeod, has been brought on staff, to fill in for an aide who is also recovering from the Jan. 8 shooting that left 6 people dead and 13 injured.
While these efforts might be normal for a member of Congress in a competitive district like hers, other Democrats see them as signs that those around her want to keep her political options open.
Ms. Giffords herself is not available to raise her own profile, so her Congressional staff does it for her, responding to constituents, issuing news releases and appearing at public events in her stead. Ms. Carusone said she expected Ms. Giffords to appear in Houston next month when her husband, Capt. Mark E. Kelly, lifted off for a two-week space shuttle mission.
A Democrat in her third term, Ms. Giffords had expressed interest in running for the Senate before a gunman opened fire at one of her signature “Congress on Your Corner” events here. Ms. Carusone said she informed her boss after Mr. Kyl announced his retirement and told her that her name had come up as a potential replacement. The response, Ms. Carusone said, was a smile.
With a question mark beside her name in the Senate race, other Democratic hopefuls are working behind the scenes as carefully as they can, lining up support in case Ms. Giffords decides to stay out while taking care not to appear disrespectful to the candidate that the Democratic establishment here believes would have the best chance of winning.
“We are all rooting for Gabby to recover and run,” said Don Bivens, a former party chairman who himself is interested in the Senate seat. “She would be a great senator for Arizona. But we also need a Plan B.”
Ms. Giffords’s intentions also have an impact on the Democrats who are considering her House seat. They are engaged in an especially delicate process, quietly calling key Democratic donors to gauge support while trying to remain invisible.
“Whether she’ll be ready to run or interested in running nobody can say,” said Andrei Cherny, chairman of the state Democratic Party who is trying to coordinate all the behind-the-scenes machinations. “But there is a sense that she should make that decision and that she should have options once she’s ready to make it.”
Fred DuVal, a member of the state Board of Regents, is one who is considering a Senate run if Ms. Giffords, a friend of his, opts out. He visited her in Houston last week but refused to discuss whether he left more or less convinced that she would enter the race. “If anybody can recover from this, Gabby Giffords can,” Mr. DuVal said.
There is no looming deadline for the Senate race, which is more than a year and a half away, but running as a Democrat is no easy task in Arizona, so time is an asset. Mr. Kyl announced his decision to retire on Feb. 10, and Representative Jeff Flake, a Republican, jumped into the race four days later. As Mr. Flake piles up endorsements, raises money and awaits Republican primary challengers, including the expected entrance of Representative Trent Franks, Democrats are in a holding pattern.
Among the Democratic names being floated are Representative Ed Pastor, who is in his 11th term representing the Phoenix area, as well as a handful of lesser-known hopefuls.
Ford Burkhart contributed reporting.
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